SIRA’s newly released Return to Work Roadmap 2026 to 2028 highlights a concerning trend in NSW, with return to work outcomes continuing to move in the wrong direction.
Return to work rates at 13 weeks have fallen from 88% in 2016 to 2017, to 79% in 2024 to 2025. According to the report, this decline has contributed to an estimated 45,680 additional people experiencing avoidable work disability over that period.
Several findings stand out.
Psychological injury claims continue to grow
Psychological injury claims now represent 10% of all claims, yet account for 26% of total claim costs.
The difference in recovery outcomes is also significant. The 13 week return to work rate for psychological injuries sits at 40%, compared with 84% for physical injuries.
Public sector claims remain disproportionately high
Although the NSW public sector represents around 8% of the workforce, it accounts for 20% of all claims.
The report also notes that psychological injury claims within the Treasury Managed Fund (TMF) have doubled over the past six years.
Small businesses are facing greater challenges
Employers with 1 to 19 staff recorded the lowest return to work rate at 69%, despite making up 91% of NSW employers.
This highlights the challenges many smaller organisations face when managing workplace injury, recovery and return to work processes without dedicated internal support.
Early intervention remains critical
One of the clearest findings in the report is the impact of time away from work.
After 45 days off work, the likelihood of returning drops to around 50%.
The Roadmap places strong emphasis on person centred early intervention, stronger employer support and improved insurer accountability, with a clear focus on improving return to work outcomes year on year.
The report reinforces something occupational health professionals have known for years. Early support, clear communication and timely intervention can significantly influence recovery outcomes and long term workforce participation.
Source for further reading:
https://www.sira.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/1402609/SIRA-RTW-roadmap-2026-28.pdf
